The hottest iron ore will usher in an oversold reb

2022-08-08
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Iron ore will usher in an oversold rebound

although the normalization of environmental protection production restriction affects the demand for iron ore, environmental protection production restriction also pushes up the demand for mainstream high-quality resources, resulting in a relative shortage of mainstream high-quality resources. Especially after the new quality delivery standard of iron ore 1809 contract is officially launched, the futures price will better reflect the spot price of mainstream high-quality products, and the continuous rise of spot price has a strong supporting effect on the futures price

good terminal demand

affected by the long Spring Festival holiday, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) has maintained a steady expansion trend, although it fell month on month. In February, 2018, the PMI was 50 in addition 3%, although it fell by 1 percentage point from the previous month, it still maintained a steady expansion trend and remained in the expansion range for 19 consecutive months

from the end demand real estate investment, the national real estate investment continued to maintain a high growth rate from January to February 2018, with the total development investment reaching 1083.1 billion yuan, a nominal year-on-year increase of 9.9%, and the growth rate increased by 2.9 percentage points over the whole year last year. Among them, the residential investment is 737.9 billion yuan, which can help everyone by 12.3% and the growth rate increases by 2.9 percentage points. Real estate has maintained a relatively high growth rate, so the end demand is expected to be optimistic

mainstream high-quality mines continued to raise water

in 2018, various regions successively introduced environmental protection and production restriction measures. Hebei Province issued the "special action for atmospheric environment law enforcement in Hebei Province (fifth round) plan", and decided to organize and carry out the fifth round of special action for atmospheric environment law enforcement in the whole province from February 25, 2018 on this basis. Tangshan issued the "2018 off peak production plan of Tangshan Steel Industry in non heating seasons" (Exposure Draft), requiring the county (city) and district governments to decompose the total peak production task of 9.875 million tons of blast furnace ironmaking capacity of the city's steel industry, and implement the full amount of it month by month to the specific enterprises, specific equipment and production restriction time in the jurisdiction

due to the impact of environmental protection and production restriction, in order to increase the production of molten iron and meet the emission reduction standards, high-quality and high-quality resources have always been favored by steel mills. Therefore, the mainstream high-quality resources are relatively in short supply, the price is stable and continues to rise. According to wind statistics, as of March 15, the spot price of Pb fine ore in Qingdao port was 495 yuan/ton, equivalent to 527 yuan/ton after adding the quality premium, and the spot premium was 32.5 yuan/ton. In addition, after calculation, if the capital occupation cost and storage cost held in cash are added, the discount of futures 1805 contract is nearly 80 yuan/ton, which is the same as the discount of Newman powder of futures 1805 contract is 124 yuan/ton

under the background of continuous warming of environmental protection, mainstream high-quality resources will continue to be the first choice in the market, especially after the big commercial exchange changed the 1809 contract delivery quality standard, which limits the delivery convenience of non mainstream varieties, and the futures price can better reflect the mainstream minerals. Therefore, under the situation that mainstream minerals are favored and the price of futures continues to rise, the futures price still has room to rise

the inventory of mainstream resources fell

the slow release of terminal demand after the Spring Festival, coupled with the rise of environmental protection in various regions, and the passive accumulation of steel stocks, resulting in the light purchase of raw materials by steel mills, and the pressure on iron ore inventory is still large, but the inventory of mainstream high-quality resources fell

the data showed that as of the week of March 16, the iron ore in 45 ports across the country was 159.73 million tons, an increase of 1.4 million tons month on month compared with the previous week. Among them, the inventory of ports in North China and along the river increased significantly, and the port dredging in North China fell significantly due to production restrictions, while the pressure on ports in East China also increased significantly due to the weather

as of March 12, the inventory of Pb powder in 14 ports across the country was 9.01 million tons, down 1.5% from the previous week, and the inventory of Newman powder was 2.774 million tons, down 12.3% from the previous week. On the whole, although the overall inventory pressure of iron ore is large, the heat resistance, flame retardancy, toughening and yellowing resistance of PBT materials for energy-saving lamps in inventory have always been the key research directions in this field, and the structural shortage still exists, The strength of mainstream high-quality resources is still an important support for iron ore prices

to sum up, we believe that iron ore still has upward mobility. The target price is 500. Operationally, it is recommended to sell high and absorb low in the range of 470-500, and the lower part effectively falls below more than 470 stop losses

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