The hottest Iron Rooster 47 trillion new investmen

2022-08-15
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The national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of transport recently jointly issued the three-year action plan for the construction of major transportation infrastructure projects, proposing to focus on promoting 303 railway, highway, waterway, airport and urban rail transit projects in the three years from 2016 to 2018, The total investment involved in the project is about 4.7 trillion yuan. Transportation infrastructure is often called "Iron Rooster" by the people (the abbreviation of railway, highway and airport is harmonic. Every region has its own old customer voice). When the market investment willingness of promising governments around the world is relatively weak, they often actively promote the construction of transportation infrastructure through tangible hands. For example, the "Roosevelt New Deal" implemented by the United States, the "Marshall Plan" implemented by Europe, and the "4trillion plan" implemented by China in 2009 have all focused on the field of transportation infrastructure

"Iron Rooster" is easy to be selected by the government as an important starting point for counter cyclical regulation because this kind of investment can better take into account the president and short-term demands of economic society. Specifically, on the one hand, the transportation infrastructure plastic granulator operation touches on a wide range of areas of the national economy. The investment is not only large in volume, but also has a very strong pulling effect on upstream and downstream industries, Therefore, in the short-term period when the demand for "stable growth" is more prominent, it can quickly and significantly boost the economy

on the other hand, compared with other government expenditures, transportation infrastructure investment usually has more significant positive externalities in a long period of time. For example, one of the important advantages of China's previous faster development than almost all developing countries is that China's Institutional Feature of "concentrating on major events" is more conducive to the rapid improvement of various infrastructure, including transportation

China is still a developing country with a low per capita capital stock (equivalent to only about 15% of the United States), so on the whole, China can and needs to further increase infrastructure investment. Of course, in this process, given that some problems have been inevitably exposed due to the rapid growth rate, the investment leader of "Iron Rooster" needs to seriously look for weaknesses and make up for them

the biggest problem in China's transportation infrastructure construction is the doubt of efficiency. For example, taking highway construction as an example, in 2014, the national toll road lost 157.11 billion yuan, an increase of 137% compared with 2013, and an increase of 240% compared with 2012; Another set of data that is in sharp contrast with this huge loss is that the ratio of China's annual total logistics cost to GDP is as high as 18%, and the ratio of logistics cost to the value of logistics goods is as high as 9.9%. These two data are twice that of developed countries

the most convenient explanation for such a high loss in the case of such high tolls is undoubtedly that China's toll road debt ratio is too high, and the debt service expenditure accounts for more than 70% of the total expenditure. However, in addition, precisely because of this obviously unprofitable fund arrangement, it is reminiscent of a general rule that has been repeatedly verified by empirical facts, that is, any investment project with unclear policy losses and operational losses is not only very easy to fall into the quagmire of soft budget constraints and moral hazard on the micro level, but also leads to resource mismatch on the macro level because of its internal control anomie

the fundamental way to change this unclear phenomenon is to completely abandon the pan paternalism of only focusing on input and not asking about output from the beginning of the project. The institutional guarantee of abandoning pan paternalism is to strengthen the debt constraints on local governments; Second, we should try to make sample parameters and preset parameters and results, connect social capital investment channels, and force the "Iron Rooster" to improve the governance structure and transform the management mechanism by attracting investment

1. Friendly reminder of the ball screw, the driving part of the sensor of the electronic universal experimental machine

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